Rupee Opened Higher On Quiet Regional Cues, Euro Falls

Rupee Opened Higher On Quiet Regional Cues, Euro Falls

25 Jan 2019 09:41 AM
 

USD/INR – The Indian rupee opened higher against the dollar as Asian currencies struggle for direction amid uncertainty over U.S.-China trade relationship. The rupee opened at 71.00 versus its previous close of 71.07.  Asian currencies were mostly little changed on Friday amid comments by U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross in an interview with CNBC that the U.S. and China remain “miles and miles from getting a resolution” and that “trade is complicated” and “there are lots and lots of issues.

EUR/USD – The euro struggled near a six-week low versus the dollar following dovish-sounding comments from European Central Bank President Mario Draghi, who expressed concerns about the euro zone economy. Germany, France and Italy, the euro zone's biggest economies, barely grew in the fourth quarter of 2018 and survey data showed on Thursday business activity across the euro zone expanded at the slowest pace since 2013 at the start of this year. Germany has dropped its economic growth forecast for 2019 to 1.0 percent from 1.8 percent due to slower global economic growth and uncertainty about Britain's exit from the European Union, the Handelsblatt newspaper reported on Thursday. The euro held steady at $1.1311 after losing about 0.7 percent overnight, when it brushed the six-week trough of $1.1289. The euro was down 0.5 percent this week. EUR/USD was last trading at 1.1321.

GBP/USD – GBP/USD can extend its grind higher a bit further if expectations of a delayed or softer Brexit are realized, but those gains may prove short-lived without clear progress on the Irish border issue. The pound was up 0.3 percent at $1.3096 after brushing a two-month high of $1.3130, drawing support after The Sun reported on Thursday that Northern Ireland's Democratic Unionist Party has privately decided to back Prime Minister May's Brexit deal next week if it includes a clear time limit to the Irish backstop. Though cable's running into some resistance by the 200-DMA at 1.3071, waning fears of a no-deal British exit from the EU the unwinding of large GBP/USD short positions could push the pound up to Nov 7 high of 1.3176 and the July 9 high of 1.3363.. GBPUSD was last trading at 1.3120.

USD/JPY - U.S.-China trade deal will keep USD/JPY rebounds capped at 110, especially after U.S. Commerce Secretary Ross said the U.S. and China are "miles and miles" away from agreement USD/JPY sank after the comment, spurring safe-haven demand for the yen even if some of that allure has been tarnished recently The U.S. Markit PMI beat helped keep the losses contained by Wednesday's NY low near 109.40. Chinese attempts to reign in risky lending and the trade war have slammed growth, also hurting Japan's economy and complicating the yen's reaction. Japan's January Markit PMI fell 2.6 points to 50, straddling the recession line but unlike the Fed, the BOJ has little room to lower rates. Wednesday's 110 USD/JPY high revealed plenty of supply near there. With the falling 30-DMA at 109.91 reinforcing the 110 high, there's room for a retest of Tuesday's low and the 38.2 percent Fib of the January 10-23 advance at 109.14, and the 10-DMA at 109.16, if there's no positive news on trade or the U.S. government shutdown.  USDJPY last trading at 109.80.

Currency range for today

Currency Upper Lower
USD/INR 70.80 71.30
EUR/INR 80.00 80.80
GBP/INR 92.65 93.45
JPY/INR 0.6440 0.6510

Important data releases on 25-01-2019

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

26-Jan 2.30 PM EUR German Ifo Business Climate Index 100.7 101.0
26-Jan 7.00 PM USD Core Durable Goods Orders  0.3% 0.4%
26-Jan 7.30 PM USD New Home Sales  560.K 544K


 


Date : Jan-2019

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