Jan 16 2019

Rupee Opened Almost Flat Amid Fall In Trade Deficit And Dollar Strength

USD/INR – The rupee opened little changed against the dollar after India’s trade deficit narrowed to a 10-month low, offsetting broad strength in the U.S. currency. The rupee opened at 71.06 versus its previous close of 71.0350. While the immediate trend on the pair had recently changed to the upside, technical dollar selling at the 50-day moving average of around 71.05 will likely support the rupee in the coming days.

EUR/USD – EUR/USD hit its lowest in more than a week after ECB chief Draghi gave official voice to concerns over the euro zone economy, though Fed-inspired dollar weakness could help limit the slide. Draghi spoke to the European Parliament after a report showed German economic growth slowed to its weakest pace in five years in 2018. Evidence that euro zone’s largest economy is putting on the breaks heightens concerns that the bloc is in a serious slowdown. Reflecting those worries, HSBC economists said in a recent report that the window for ECB rate hikes has closed.  Fed and dollar remain the biggest influence on the market currently and have been supporting EUR/USD. The Fed has been stressing patience regarding rate rises while eurodollar and fed funds markets show no 2019 hikes and a growing possibility of rate cuts in 2020. Short-term downside risks are in place for EUR/USD but new long-term lows are unlikely. EUR/USD was last trading at $1.1400.

GBP/USD – Sterling rallied more than a cent from the day’s lows against the dollar on Tuesday after British lawmakers overwhelmingly defeated Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit divorce deal. The pound rallied on some expectations that the scale of the defeat might force lawmakers to pursue other options. The pound which was down as much as 1.2 percent before the vote, was briefly down 1.5 percent before rebounding sharply $1.2845.

USD/JPY – The yen strengthened against the greenback to trade at 108.50. USD/JPY weighed down by fall in Nikkei and dropped 0.3% to a low of 108.37.

Currency range for today

 USD/INR – 70.75 to 71.25

EUR/INR – 80.50 to 81.30

GBP/INR – 90.70 to 91.50

JPY/INR – 0.6515 to 0.6565


Important data releases today

Date Time Currency Event Actual Forecast Previous
15-Jan-19 6:00 PM INR Trade Balance -13.08B -14.98B 16.67B
16-Jan-19 2.45 PM GBP BoE Gov Carney Speaks
16-Jan-19 3.00 PM GBP CPI (YoY) 2.1% 2.3%
16-Jan-19 7.00 PM USD Core Retail Sales (MoM) 0.1% 0.2%
16-Jan-19 7.00 PM USD Retail Sales (MoM) 0.2% 0.2%
16-Jan-19 9.00 PM USD Crude Oil Inventories -1.323M -1.680M