Nov 06 2017

Time to pray for Nifty bulls

Nifty has witnessed a relentless rise since late Dec16 – from a low of 7894 (26 Dec16) to the latest close of 8924 (8 Mar17) – superlative absolute returns of 13% in just about 2.5 months. Are Indian companies really doing so well?? Quarterly financial performance (Dec16) of Nifty companies were mediocre (moderate, at best).

Using Seagulls to hedge forex risk

The new year has dawned and the central theme for financial markets has been US dollars strength (this has continued since Trumps victory on 8Nov16). The US President-elect has been promising to bring about substantial changes to “make America great again”. Lot of promises (his press conference a few days back was combative and he

Nov 01 2017

USDINR Ideas – Short term outlook

After a sudden bout of weakness (plunging 2.25% in 6 working days) during last week of September to levels around 65.80-90, rupee is back to its gaining days. Gaining consistently since the beginning of October, rupee has reached its strongest level since the weakness started on 21 September 2017. It is currently hovering around 64.50-60 levels. Technically, rupee

Sep 25 2017

USDINR Ideas – Hurricane after the Lull

Hope you were “Beware of the Lull” and took necessary precautions. Please check my mail below dated 22Jul17.  Participants in the rupee markets concluded that 64 rupees to a dollar is the norm and got accustomed to the lull (prolonged periods of sideways movement) and as such my regular advise of keeping liabilities hedged fell on

Aug 03 2017

EURUSD Ideas – Will the steep surge continue

Euros rally in the last 7 months has been nothing less than spectacular – soaring 13% since the start of this year. Quite surprising for a currency that was widely talked about reaching parity to the US dollar around the latter part of 2016. Well, euro parity to US dollar was largely speculative and a

Jul 22 2017

USDINR Ideas – Beware of the Lull

Wow, what a market!! Beware of the lull. Initially, it shakes and jolts you with bouts of excessive volatility (please recall the explosive moves between 66.30 to 68.80 in Nov/Dec16 and from 68.40 to 64.40 in Feb/Mar17) – when levels changed dramatically within a few days (and sometimes within a few hours too). Everyone was

Jun 10 2017

Uncertainty of Events and EURUSD

What an eventful week it has turned out to be!! Especially for UK, as it went into deciding their next Prime Minister on 8 June 2017. What followed was wild swinging of fortunes between the Conservatives (led by Theresa May) and the Labours (led by Jeremy Corbyn). May won the elections but lost the majority.

May 03 2017

USDINR Ideas – Rupee poised towards 62 or 66!!

What a fantastic roller coaster ride it has been for the rupee!! What a rush!!Dollar was sold (and rupee bought) as if there is no tomorrow. Multi-year dollar supports tumbled like a pack of cards on ice. Rupee broke levels as if exchange rates were just another number. Equities surged and euphoria never had a

Mar 25 2017

USDINR Ideas – Deja Vu

Wow, what a market!! First, it lulls you into hibernation with prolonged periods of sideways movements, and then suddenly, you get shocks of sharp rupee appreciation in small periods of time. Time and again, it proves all the market pundits wrong That leads to commonly debated questions (quite rightly so), why forecast at all?, focus on

Feb 15 2017

What is Rupee up to?

Had articulated my mind about USDINR direction on my research (USDINR Ideas – Nothing endures but change) dated 3 Feb17 (am sure you would have received a copy). I had sensed that rupee gains will stop around 67.10-30 – obviously markets didnt have to agree with me and rupee touched a high of 66.76 (strongest