Weekly Currency Outlook -30 March to 04 April 2020

Weekly Currency Outlook -30 March to 04 April 2020

29 Mar 2020 12:16 PM

USDINR:- In the upcoming week, Indian economy scheduled to reveal its Fedral Fiscal Deficit data for the month of Feb on 31th March, 2020 – the previous released figure is 9,854.72B . Nikkei Manufacturing PMI for current month, schduled to release on Thursday (2nd April). The forecast is suggesting, PMI  to dip down to 50.30 Vs. 54.5 earlier released figure.

Technical Outlook:- The USDINR pair – over the weekly chart is trading in an uptrend channel . The pair at present is hovering close to its upper band – wherein the resistance line is coming approximatley at 76.20 – 76.50 mark. Momentum is also hovering above its upper band – RSI (14) is at 78 mark – which is above its overbought zone (70).. We expect USDINR to trade in a weekly band between 74.30 to 76.50 mark.

EURUSD:- For EURUSD, the upcoming week is full of economic data releases – starting with the German Unemployment change for March  on 31 March 2020- the forecast for same is 28K Vs. (-10K) previously reported figure. Eurozone scheduled to release its consumer inflation data year-on-year (YoY) basis for the month of March on 31st March, 2020. The forecast is suggesting, retail inflation to dip at 0.8Pct Vs. 1.2pct earlier released figure. German Manufacturing PMI, for the month of March on Wednesday (01 April, 2020). The forecast for same is to drop mildly at 45.5 Vs. 45.7 reported previously.  

Technical Outlook:-  On a weekly chart EURUSD managed well to hold the major weekly support, roughly at 1.0700 to 1.0750 mark. Momentum has started heading  towards the zero-line – RSI(14) is at 48 mark. Immediate support is sen at 1.0830 to 1,0870 mark, while 200 period SMA is acting as weekly resistance for the pair at 1.1341 mark. Coming week, we expect EURUSD to remain in a band between 1.0830 to 1.1340.

GBPUSD:- United Kingdom scheduled its GDP growth (QoQ) and (YoY) for 4th quarter on Tuesday – 31 March, 2020. GDP growth Year on Year (YoY) basis for the month is expected to drop at 0.0% Vs. 0.4% previous. GDP growth Quarter on Quarter (QoQ) basis is expected to remain same at 1.1%. On Wednesday (1st April, 2020) Manufacturing PMI –for the month of March is scheduled to release. The forecast of Manufacturing PMI is expected to fell slight to 47.0 compared with its earlier reported figure of 48.0. Construction PMI for the month of March with its earlier released figure 52.6, scheduled on 02nd April 2020. Composite and Services PMI  for the month of March to be relased by coming Friday (03rd April, 2020)

Technical Outlook:-GBPUSD stop its losses at a strong weekly support line at 1.1409 mark. Immediate support for GBPUSD is seen at around 1.2000 mark, while the resistance for same is expected to come approximately at 1.2400 mark. We expect the pair to trade in a weekly range between 1.2000 to 1.2400.

USDJPY:- For the upcoming week – Japan is ready to release its Industrial Production month on month (MoM) basis and Jobs/applicatio ratio for February month on 31 March 2020.  The earlier released figure for industrial production is 1.0 Pct growth – with the expected forecast of 0.1% growth.  Jobs/application ratio is expected to drop to 1.47 Vs. 1.49 previous figure.Tankan’s survey for large manufacturing and non-manufacturing index for quarter 1 – to be released by Wednesday (01st April, 2020).Manufacturers Index is expedted to fell to (-10) Vs. 5 earlier reported. Non Manufacturers Index is aldo expeted to drop at 6 Vs. 20 earlier released figure.

Technical Outlook:- The pair USDJPY gain, seems arrested by a downward sloping trend-line resistace – approximately at 112 mark, while the immediate resistance for pair is at around 110 mark. The horizontal support, is currently  coming near 105 mark. We expect the pair to trade in a weekly range between 105 to 110.