Weekly Currency Outlook - 23 to 28 March 2020

Weekly Currency Outlook - 23 to 28 March 2020

22 Mar 2020 12:36 PM

USDINR:- In the upcoming week, no key data are scheduled to release by Indian economy. Some of U.S major economic datas are in queue to release by coming week.  New Home Sales for the month of Feb on 24th March, 2020. The forecast is suggesting, home sales to cool down to 750K Vs. 764K earlier released figure. Core durable goods orders for Feb Month on Month (MoM) basis on 25th March – with its forecast to drop by (-0.4) Vs. 0.8Pct earlier. GDP growth for Quarter 4 (Q4) to be released on March 26th , the forecast of GDP growth is to remain same at 2.1pct.

Technical Outlook:- The USDINR pair – over the weekly chart is trading in an uptrend channel . The pair at present is hovering close to its upper band – wherein the resistance line is coming approximatley at 76.00 mark. The immediate support is currently at 74.50 mark. We expect USDINR to trade in a weekly band between 74.50 to 76.00.

EURUSD:- For EURUSD, the contribution of upcoming week economic data releases is from Germany only – starting with the German Manufacturing PMI, for the month of March on Tuesday (10 March, 2020). The forecast for same is to dip at 40.0 Vs. 48.0 reported previously. The German IFO Business Climate Index is due to release coming Wednesday – which seems to drop – according to the forecast of 87.7 Vs. 96.0 earlier. 

Technical Outlook:-  On a weekly chart EURUSD is trading over its major weekly support, roughly at 1.0700 to 1.0750 mark. Momentum has dipped below the zero-line – RSI(14) is at 39 mark. A valid break below 1.0700 would open the doors for EURUSD to test back the horizontal support – lies at 1.0480 mark. On the other hand 1.0950 to 1.10 handle could be seen.

GBPUSD:- United Kingdom scheduled its Composite, Manufacturing and Services PMI to be released on Tuesday – 24 March, 2020. Retail inflation Year on Year (YoY) basis for the month of Feb on March 25th. CPI is expected to cool down a bit at 1.6% Vs. 1.8% previous. On Thursday Retail sales – Month on Month (MoM) basis for the month of February, scheduled to release. The forecast of Retial sales is to dip by 0.2% compared with its earlier reported figure of 0.9% growth.

Technical Outlook:-GBPUSD breakout down the strong horizontal support at 1.1985 mark. The broken support is currenlty acting as an immediate resistance for the pair, while the week’s low of 1.1409 is the nearest support for pair GBPUSD. We expect the pair to trade in a weekly range between 1.1400 to 1.2000.

USDJPY:- For upcoming week, starting from 23rd March till 28th March 2020 – Japan is ready to release its Services PMI data on Tuesday (24 March 2020).  Tokyo Core CPI, Year on Year (YoY) basis for the month of March is set to release on Friday, March 27th . CPI is expected to drop slightly at 0.4% Vs. 0.5% previous.

Technical Outlook:- The pair USDJPY is trading close to its downward sloping trend-line resistace – approximately at 112 mark – the support, of 20 period Simple Moving Average is currently at 109.66 mark. We expect the pair to trade in a weekly range between 109 to 112.