Weekly Currency Outlook - 16 to 21 March 2020

Weekly Currency Outlook - 16 to 21 March 2020

15 Mar 2020 11:38 AM
 

USDINR:- In the upcoming week, Indian economy scheduled to release its wholesale inflation data year-on-year (YoY) basis for the month of Feb on 16th March, 2020. The forecast is suggesting, wholesale inflation to cool down to 2.65Pct Vs. 3.10pct earlier released figure.

Technical Outlook:- The USDINR pair re-tested it’s all time high of 74.4850 – the peak has behaved as an immediate resistance for the pair. Stability near the all time high – might trigger a correction/retracement to 72.00-72.50 mark. During the week we are expecting USDINR to remain in a band of 74.50 to 72.50. 

EURUSD:- For EURUSD, the upcoming week is full of economic data releases – starting with the German Zew Economic sentiment on 17 March 2020, for the month of March - the forecast for same is (-23.4) Vs. 8.7 previously reported figure. Eurozone scheduled to release its consumer inflation data year-on-year (YoY) basis for the month of Feb on 18th March, 2020. The forecast is suggesting, retail inflation to to remain same at 1.2Pct Vs. 1.2pct earlier released figure. 

Technical Outlook:-  On a weekly chart EURUSD is hovering between the simple moving averages of 50 and 200 period50 period SMA is coming at 1.1121, while 200 period Simple Moving average and horizontal trend-line resistance at 1.1345 and 1.4595 mark. For upcoming week, the pair is likely to remain in a range between 1.1500 to 1.1100 mark.

GBPUSD:- United Kingdom scheduled its Average Earning Index + Bonus data for January month to be released on Tuesday 17th March, 2020. On Tuesday itself Claimant count change for February is also scheduled for release. Average Earning Index is expected to grow mildly at 3.0Pct Vs. 2.9Pct previous. For Claimant count change – the earlier released number was 5.5K.

Technical Outlook:-For the upcoming week, sterling is likely to remain in a band between 1.2800 to 1.2350. The pair is trading below its short and long term moving averages of 50 and 200 period at 1.2751(50) and 1.3015(200) mark. RSI(14) is at 41 mark – suggesting slower momentum.

USDJPY:- For the upcoming week – Japan is ready to release its Industrial Production data on Tuesday itself (17 March 2020), month on month (MoM) basis for January.  The earlier released figure for industrial production is 0.8 Pct growth – with no forecast for January month.  Trade balance for February month is scheduled on Wednesday with the expectation of 917.2B Vs. (-1313.2B) previously reported. National core CPI - year-on-year (YoY) basis for the month of Feb is scheduled on 19 March 2020. The forecast for National CPI is 0.6% Vs. 0.8% previous figure.

Technical Outlook:- The pair USDJPY marked the weekly bottom at 101.18 mark – the prices bounced back sharply and managed to come above the horizontal support near 104.50-60 mark. Immediate resistance of 50 and 200 period average is coming at around 108.62 and 109.63 mark. We can expect the pair to trade in a range between 104.50 to 109.60 during the coming week.