Nov 01 2017

USDINR Ideas – Short term outlook

After a sudden bout of weakness (plunging 2.25% in 6 working days) during last week of September to levels around 65.80-90, rupee is back to its gaining days. Gaining consistently since the beginning of October, rupee has reached its strongest level since the weakness started on 21 September 2017. It is currently hovering around 64.50-60 levels.

Technically, rupee has reached between 50% and 61.8% retracement region of the dollar rally from 63.56 (3 August 2017) to 65.89 (28 September 2017). Usually, such retracement regions act as strong resistances. Check the chart below.

Importers: levels around 64.50-60 are good to buy for November payments. Can also hedge partially for December liabilities. Such levels look very good having recently seen levels above 65.50.

Exporters: hold for some time. First target to sell is 65.00.