Rupee Opens Higher On Trade Deal Hopes; Yuan, Equities Rise

Rupee Opens Higher On Trade Deal Hopes; Yuan, Equities Rise

11 Oct 2019 09:14 AM

USD/INR – The Indian rupee opened higher against the dollar in the wake of a Chinese yuan-led advance in Asian currencies on hopes the U.S. and China will be able to reach a trade deal. The rupee opened at 70.83 to a dollar compared with its previous close of 71.07. The onshore yuan climbed above 7.10 to the dollar and Asian equities advanced on Friday after U.S. President Donald Trump told reporters that trade talks were going “really well.” Trump’s positive assessment of where the talks were headed further boosted optimism around the negotiations. Earlier, the President had remarked on Twitter that he will meet Chinese Vice-Premier Liu He, who is leading the Chinese delegation, at White House on Friday. Trump’s comments allayed fears that the talks would end early. Yesterday, a report had suggested that deputy level talks had not progressed well and the Chinese Vice-Premier could be headed back a day earlier than planned. Data released yesterday showed that consumer prices in the U.S. rose by 1.7% on-year last month, less than the 1.8% expected by economists polled by Reuters. Core inflation reading was in line with expectations.

EUR/USD – The euro was little changed against the dollar, at $1.1015. It had climbed as high as $1.1034 in U.S. trade on Thursday, its strongest in almost three weeks. The euro fell to 1.0879 against the dollar this week, its lowest since May 2017. Even so, those getting long of EUR/USD should be aware the euro seems to have a structural bias to fall in October. EUR/USD has fallen in 11 of the past 19 October, including the last five years in a row, meaning the odds of spot ending the month in negative territory are quite high. EUR/USD bulls will be hopeful that buy stops associated with the overhanging speculative short positions might be triggered.

GBP/USD –Sterling was the biggest mover overnight, jumping 2% to a two-week high versus the dollar and posting its largest daily percentage gain in seven months on hopes of a Brexit resolution. Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar said on Thursday a Brexit deal could be clinched by the end of October to allow the United Kingdom to leave the European Union in an orderly fashion, after what he called a very positive meeting with Boris Johnson. Ireland is a major factor in the prolonged Brexit impasse.  Sterling last traded at $1.2440, having risen up to $1.2469 on Thursday.

USD/JPY – Hopes of progress in U.S.-China trade talks and optimistic comments from Europe on Brexit pushed back the safe-haven yen. The yen eased to 107.92 yen to the dollar, having shed about 0.45% the previous day. Top U.S. and Chinese negotiators wrapped up a first day of trade talks in more than two months on Thursday, as business groups expressed optimism the two sides might be able to ease a trade war and delay a U.S. tariff hike scheduled for next week. U.S. President Donald Trump told reporters that his team had a "very, very good negotiation with China," and reiterated his plans to meet with Liu at the White House on Friday.

Currency Range for today

Currency Pair Lower Upper
USD/INR 70.70 71.20
EUR/INR 77.60 78.40
GBP/INR 87.65 88.45
JPY/INR 0.6545 0.6605

Important data releases today

Time Ccy Event Forecast Previous
5:30 PM INR Cumulative Industrial Production (Aug) - 3.30%
5:30 PM INR Industrial Production (YoY) (Aug) 1.8% 4.3%
5:30 PM INR Manufacturing Output (MoM) (Aug) - 4.2%