Rupee Opens Higher As Crude Suffers Biggest Loss In 2019

Rupee Opens Higher As Crude Suffers Biggest Loss In 2019

24 May 2019 09:11 AM

USD/INR – The Indian rupee opened higher against the dollar after crude oil suffered its biggest decline since late-December. The rupee opened at 69.75 compared with its previous close of 70.01. Crude oil prices plunged yesterday alongside U.S. equities amid mounting fears that the trade standoff between the U.S. and China could intensify. The trade conflict between the two nations has worsened in recent weeks after Washington increased tariffs on Chinese shipments and threatened to tax all imports from the Asian nation. Further hurting oil prices and equities was data that revealed that U.S. manufacturing activity fell to a near 10-year low. IHS Markit “flash” Purchasing Managers Index fell to 50.6 in May, down from a final reading of 52.6 in April.

EUR/USD – The euro was flat at $1.1183, having bounced from a two-year low of $1.11055 during the previous session. The single currency came under pressure after a private survey showed activity in Germany's services and manufacturing sectors fell in May, aggravating fears about the effect of unresolved trade disputes on Europe's largest Economy. Compounding these worries, European parliamentary elections began on Thursday with eurosceptic parties expected to do well, raising concerns about the single currency's stability.

GBP/USD – Sterling weakened again as pressure mounted on Prime Minister Theresa May to name a date for her departure after a backlash over her last-ditch plans for Britain's exit from the European Union. May's final attempt to get colleagues' backing for a divorce deal triggered a revolt on Wednesday by some of her Brexit-supporting ministers, deepening political uncertainty in Britain and sparking another round of selling of the pound. House of Commons leader Andrea Leadsom has resigned and there was speculation other ministers could follow. The pound dropped 0.4% to a new 4-1/2 month low of $1.2605, before recovering some of those losses to trade at $1.2665.

USD/JPY – Against the yen, the dollar edged up to 109.60 yen, having giving up two-thirds of a percent overnight to record its steepest drop in a single session in two months. The greenback is still 0.6% above a three-month trough of 109.02 yen touched on May 13. The evaporation of hopes for U.S.-China trade war de-escalation is weighing on risk- and U.S.-rates-sensitive USD/JPY as it creates a potential dilemma for Fed policymakers who want to avoid rate cuts. And if the U.S. were to put tariffs on an additional $300bln in Chinese imports the implications would be much more worrisome. Normally, higher prices are inflationary and would prompt the Fed to tighten policy, but the expected drag on the U.S., Chinese and global economy, and financial market fallout, could force the Fed to ease at a time when the BOJ and ECB have little room to loosen. Fed rate cuts amid a rise in inflation from tariffs would send U.S. real rates and the USD/JPY much lower.

Currency Range for today

Currency Pair Lower Upper
USD/INR 69.60 70.10
EUR/INR 77.65 78.45
GBP/INR 88.00 88.80
JPY/INR 0.6340 0.6400

Important data releases today

Time Ccy Event Forecast Previous
2:00 PM GBP Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr) -0.3% 1.1%
6:00 PM USD Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Apr) 0.2% 0.2%


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