Rupee Opens Higher Amid Falling Dollar Index, Weak Risk Appetite

Rupee Opens Higher Amid Falling Dollar Index, Weak Risk Appetite

18 Jul 2019 09:11 AM

USD/INR – The Indian rupee opened higher against the U.S. currency amid losses on the dollar index and decline in equities. The rupee opened at 68.76 to the dollar compared with its previous close of 68.81. The dollar index declined yesterday and extended losses in Asia trading on Thursday amid a decline in U.S. yields. The 10-year Treasury yield yesterday declined by the most in six weeks to close at 2.06% on U.S-China trade uncertainty, weak housing data, and losses on U.S. equities. Data released by the U.S. Commerce Department yesterday showed that new-home construction decreased 0.9% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.25 million units last month and building permits fell 6.1%.

EUR/USD – The euro was flat at $1.1240 after crawling up 0.1% on Wednesday. The single currency's gains were modest as it was restrained by expectations of easing from the European Central Bank as early as next week. EUR/USD's slide has stalled short of the July 9 and June 18 daily lows, but growing downside risks are hindering strength for now. Heightened fears of intensifying U.S.-Sino trade tensions are another factor pressuring EUR/USD as German exports rely heavily on the Chinese economy. These downbeat risks have weighed on German bund yields and widened German-U.S. yield spreads.

GBP/USD – Sterling was steady at $1.2440. It had stumbled to $1.2382, its lowest since April 2017 on Wednesday amid growing risks of Britain leaving the European Union in a no-deal Brexit, before selling abated. With economic data also showing the UK economy struggling, putting more pressure on the Bank of England to ease monetary policy, investors are taking to currency derivatives and futures markets to bet on more weakness. The hard Brexit risk was boosted this week when both Johnson and Hunt said they would not accept the so-called Northern Irish backstop in Theresa May's proposed Brexit agreement. The backstop is intended to prevent the return of a hard border between EU member Ireland and British province Northern Ireland. If implemented, the UK would follow many EU rules until arrangements are made to avert a hard border.

USD/JPY – The dollar was unchanged at 107.75 yen following an overnight loss of 0.3%. Japan's exports fell for a seventh straight month in June, pressured by Sino-U.S. trade frictions, slowing China growth and rising trade protectionism, as manufacturers' business confidence hit a three-year low. Exports have been a drag on the world's third-largest economy, weighing on factory output and threatening to undermine capital expenditure. The batch of gloomy data underscored expectations among some analysts that the central bank will roll out more stimulus at its policy review later in the month.

Currency Range for today

Currency Pair Lower Upper
USD/INR 68.55 68.95
EUR/INR 76.80 77.60
GBP/INR 85.20 86.00
JPY/INR 0.6345 0.6405

Important data releases today

Time Ccy Event Forecast Previous
2:00 PM GBP Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun) -0.3% -0.5%
6:00 PM USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Jul) 5.0 0.3


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