Mar 11 2019

Rupee Opens Higher After U.S. Job Additions Miss Forecast

USD/INR – The Indian rupee opened higher against the dollar after data showed that the U.S. economy added the fewest number of jobs in one-and-a-half years. The rupee opened at 70.01 against the dollar compared with its previous close of 70.15. The dollar index declined 0.4% on Friday and the U.S. currency was trading mostly lower against Asian currencies today after data revealed that the world’s largest economy added 20,000 jobs in February, much fewer than the 180,000 number expected. While the headline number was disappointing, wage growth and unemployment rate surprised positively. Average earnings increased by 0.4% month-on-month, quicker than the 0.3% expected, and the unemployment rate declined to 3.8% from 4.0% in January.

EUR/USD – The euro was a shade lower at $1.1235. The single currency had fallen to its weakest level since late June 2017 on Thursday, hurt by dovish signals from the European Central Bank (ECB). After the ECB’s big downgrade of the growth outlook for the euro area, together with the weaker-than-expected Chinese export and import data, the worry over the global economy is re-surging again. That’s pushing down the euro. The U.S. is not particularly strong, but other areas are weak. That’s why the dollar is relatively strong.

GBP/USD– The British pound gave up 0.4% to $1.2970 after briefly dipping to a near three-week low on nervousness over Brexit. The currency had already fallen for seven straight sessions. Sterling has come under renewed pressure after British foreign minister Jeremy Hunt said on Sunday Brexit could be reversed if lawmakers reject the government’s exit deal. His remarks followed a warning from two major eurosceptic factions in parliament that Prime Minister Theresa May was likely to face heavy defeat at a parliamentary vote on Tuesday on whether to approve her EU exit plan.

USD/JPY Against the Japanese yen, the dollar was little lower at 111.15 yen. The Bank of Japan will likely maintain its view the export-reliant economy is expanding moderately but warn of heightening overseas risks, sources say, as China’s slowdown and trade tension cloud the outlook. Factories across the globe slammed on the brakes last month as demand was hit by the U.S.-China trade war, slowing global growth and political uncertainty in Europe ahead of Britain’s departure from the European Union. Such weak signs have forced major central banks to pause in raising interest rates and cast doubt on the BOJ’s repeatedly-stated assessment that overseas economies continue to grow steadily.

Currency Range for today

Currency Pair Lower Upper
USD/INR 69.8070.30
EUR/INR 78.2079.00
GBP/INR 90.3591.15
JPY/INR 0.62600.6320

Important data releases today

Time Ccy Event Forecast Previous
6:00 PM USD Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan) 0.4% -1.8%
6:00 PM USD Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan) 0.0% -1.2%