Seeing the daily charts, a double bottom seems to be forming which may make way for higher USDINR towards 72.4550 (yellow horizontal line where earlier resistance was seen around that level). To head towards that, the local currency has to go past the 3 month upper trend line marked in red which is at the current mark of 71.2400. If this red trend line, attempted last on December 11, is broken, then 72.4550 isn’t very far for it. Momentum Indicator RSI is at 58.62 inching towards 70, rising from 34.29 seen on January 1.
Earlier due to partial shutdown of US Federal government and positive US-Sino trade talks, we saw the greenback falling. The Brent oil staying sub-62 also aided the rupee to touch 69.23 briefly 10 days back. China’s fast reaction of stimulus package to tackle a weaker economy has given food for thought to other global economies. The Chinese GDP data tentatively due tomorrow should pave further action from PBOC.
Locally the wholesale inflation fell to an 8-month low to 3.8% in December as compared with 4.64% the previous month. This was mainly due to lower food prices and lower fuel cost increase. CPI was also down to 2.19% as declared by the government earlier this week. Subdued exports and declining imports have also narrowed our trade deficit to a 10-month low of USD 13.08 billion in December.
Exporters having waited for above 71.50 should start covering their near term receivables at that level, whereas importers who have missed the earlier opportunity to cover at sub 70 levels need to take guard if 70.50-80 is seen – preferably using options than forwards.