Dec 15 2017

Predictable Fed, Unpredictable Markets – 14Dec17

As was widely expected, US Fed increased the benchmark interest rates by 25 bps yesterday – third rate hike this year. The Fed kept their inflation outlook for the coming year unchanged but raised their economic growth forecast for 2018. The decisions were mostly on expected lines but currency markets’ reaction was puzzling. The dollar

Dec 01 2017

GBPUSD – Inching towards trend channel resistance

Fundamental Factors for Sterling Rally:-   Pound started its rally after Bank of England (BoE) decided on 02 Nov 2017 to increase interest rates for the first time in a decade. Specifically, the BoE increased the benchmark interest rate from a record low of 0.25% to 0.50%. This is the first increase since July 2007

Nov 21 2017

USDINR Ideas – Soverign Rating Boost

Rupee has witnessed a see-saw kind of volatility since I wrote my last article (dated 1Nov17 – please see below). Hope dollar importers have paid heed to my advice of hedging November liabilities around 64.50-60. Rupee had surged to a short-term peak of 64.47 on 2 November and quickly weakened towards 65.40-50 within a couple

Nov 06 2017

Time to pray for Nifty bulls

Nifty has witnessed a relentless rise since late Dec16 – from a low of 7894 (26 Dec16) to the latest close of 8924 (8 Mar17) – superlative absolute returns of 13% in just about 2.5 months. Are Indian companies really doing so well?? Quarterly financial performance (Dec16) of Nifty companies were mediocre (moderate, at best).

Using Seagulls to hedge forex risk

The new year has dawned and the central theme for financial markets has been US dollars strength (this has continued since Trumps victory on 8Nov16). The US President-elect has been promising to bring about substantial changes to “make America great again”. Lot of promises (his press conference a few days back was combative and he

Nov 01 2017

USDINR Ideas – Short term outlook

After a sudden bout of weakness (plunging 2.25% in 6 working days) during last week of September to levels around 65.80-90, rupee is back to its gaining days. Gaining consistently since the beginning of October, rupee has reached its strongest level since the weakness started on 21 September 2017. It is currently hovering around 64.50-60 levels. Technically, rupee