Dec 15 2017

Predictable Fed, Unpredictable Markets – 14Dec17

As was widely expected, US Fed increased the benchmark interest rates by 25 bps yesterday – third rate hike this year. The Fed kept their inflation outlook for the coming year unchanged but raised their economic growth forecast for 2018. The decisions were mostly on expected lines but currency markets’ reaction was puzzling. The dollar

Nov 29 2017

EURUSD view – Long term hedging ideas

The Fed is looking at an interest rate hike in Dec17 (indicated by chairman elect Jerome Powell’s statement yesterday) and then pause for a while (probably a long while). ECB on the other hand, is unwinding and tapering its QE programme in 2018. There is little doubt as to which is more attractive from bond

Nov 06 2017

Time to pray for Nifty bulls

Nifty has witnessed a relentless rise since late Dec16 – from a low of 7894 (26 Dec16) to the latest close of 8924 (8 Mar17) – superlative absolute returns of 13% in just about 2.5 months. Are Indian companies really doing so well?? Quarterly financial performance (Dec16) of Nifty companies were mediocre (moderate, at best).

Using Seagulls to hedge forex risk

The new year has dawned and the central theme for financial markets has been US dollars strength (this has continued since Trumps victory on 8Nov16). The US President-elect has been promising to bring about substantial changes to “make America great again”. Lot of promises (his press conference a few days back was combative and he

Nov 01 2017

USDINR Ideas – Short term outlook

After a sudden bout of weakness (plunging 2.25% in 6 working days) during last week of September to levels around 65.80-90, rupee is back to its gaining days. Gaining consistently since the beginning of October, rupee has reached its strongest level since the weakness started on 21 September 2017. It is currently hovering around 64.50-60 levels. Technically, rupee

Sep 25 2017

USDINR Ideas – Hurricane after the Lull

Hope you were “Beware of the Lull” and took necessary precautions. Please check my mail below dated 22Jul17.  Participants in the rupee markets concluded that 64 rupees to a dollar is the norm and got accustomed to the lull (prolonged periods of sideways movement) and as such my regular advise of keeping liabilities hedged fell on