Feb 27 2018

USDINR Ideas – Will the nervousness prolong?? – 27Feb18

The rupee was trading range-bound between 63.40-64.40 for a month and a half since the dawn of new year. Abruptly, within 4 trading days, rupee weakened from 63.80 to 65.10. What drove this weakness is common knowledge. Let’s make a calculated guess as to what lies ahead. Consider the following: After pumping in handsomely in

Jan 30 2018

Will dollar trace a bottom?

Wow, the forex markets continue to excite (have spent almost 2 decades and still feel young, energetic and exploring – miles to go J) Latest obsession is Euro/GBP/major currencies’ surge and the resultant plunge in the dollar index. There have been dramatic moves in currencies since the beginning of the new year (to say the

myforexeye-blog 19 dec
Dec 19 2017

Gujarat Election Results – Reading between the lines

It was one hell of a ride. People will remember 18 December ‘17 for a long time (obviously for various reasons). Rupee opened at 64.15 and within 16 minutes plunged to 64.74 (its lowest level since end November’17). Before the market participants could realize what’s happening, rupee was back to 64.15 in the next 52

Dec 15 2017

Predictable Fed, Unpredictable Markets – 14Dec17

As was widely expected, US Fed increased the benchmark interest rates by 25 bps yesterday – third rate hike this year. The Fed kept their inflation outlook for the coming year unchanged but raised their economic growth forecast for 2018. The decisions were mostly on expected lines but currency markets’ reaction was puzzling. The dollar

Nov 29 2017

EURUSD view – Long term hedging ideas

The Fed is looking at an interest rate hike in Dec17 (indicated by chairman elect Jerome Powell’s statement yesterday) and then pause for a while (probably a long while). ECB on the other hand, is unwinding and tapering its QE programme in 2018. There is little doubt as to which is more attractive from bond

Nov 21 2017

USDINR Ideas – Rating upgrade boost – 21Nov17

Rupee has witnessed a see-saw kind of volatility since I wrote my last article (dated 1Nov17 – please see below). Hope dollar importers have paid heed to my advice of hedging November liabilities around 64.50-60. Rupee had surged to a short-term peak of 64.47 on 2 November and quickly weakened towards 65.40-50 within a couple