myforexeye-blog 19 dec
Dec 19 2017

Gujarat Election Results – Reading between the lines

It was one hell of a ride. People will remember 18 December ‘17 for a long time (obviously for various reasons). Rupee opened at 64.15 and within 16 minutes plunged to 64.74 (its lowest level since end November’17). Before the market participants could realize what’s happening, rupee was back to 64.15 in the next 52

Dec 15 2017

Predictable Fed, Unpredictable Markets – 14Dec17

As was widely expected, US Fed increased the benchmark interest rates by 25 bps yesterday – third rate hike this year. The Fed kept their inflation outlook for the coming year unchanged but raised their economic growth forecast for 2018. The decisions were mostly on expected lines but currency markets’ reaction was puzzling. The dollar

Nov 29 2017

EURUSD view – Long term hedging ideas

The Fed is looking at an interest rate hike in Dec17 (indicated by chairman elect Jerome Powell’s statement yesterday) and then pause for a while (probably a long while). ECB on the other hand, is unwinding and tapering its QE programme in 2018. There is little doubt as to which is more attractive from bond

Nov 21 2017

USDINR Ideas – Rating upgrade boost – 21Nov17

Rupee has witnessed a see-saw kind of volatility since I wrote my last article (dated 1Nov17 – please see below). Hope dollar importers have paid heed to my advice of hedging November liabilities around 64.50-60. Rupee had surged to a short-term peak of 64.47 on 2 November and quickly weakened towards 65.40-50 within a couple

Nov 01 2017

USDINR Ideas – Short term outlook

After a sudden bout of weakness (plunging 2.25% in 6 working days) during last week of September to levels around 65.80-90, rupee is back to its gaining days. Gaining consistently since the beginning of October, rupee has reached its strongest level since the weakness started on 21 September 2017. It is currently hovering around 64.50-60 levels. Technically, rupee

Sep 25 2017

USDINR Ideas – Hurricane after the Lull

Hope you were “Beware of the Lull” and took necessary precautions. Please check my mail below dated 22Jul17.  Participants in the rupee markets concluded that 64 rupees to a dollar is the norm and got accustomed to the lull (prolonged periods of sideways movement) and as such my regular advise of keeping liabilities hedged fell on